High Risk – High Return: Investing in Ideas, People, and Assets at a 60% Discount
On May 12, The Baltic Business Club organised an exclusive CEO Room event in Tallinn. This time, the discussion moved away from the usual operational matters to more pressing topics: venture capital, high-risk assets, real estate, and decision-making under uncertainty.
The keynote speaker was Nikita Mania, developer of the HIDE project and a venture investor known for his straightforward approach to risk. Nikita openly admits that his strategy isn’t for everyone – it involves high risk, high volatility, and a readiness to make unpopular decisions. Yet, this exact playbook has enabled him to profit from startups, distressed assets, and real estate.
Instead of generic motivational success stories, the discussion focused on practical frameworks:
- How to evaluate risk when the market is panicking;
- Why people matter more than numbers during early-stage investing;
- How to use stable real estate assets as a foundation for more aggressive investments;
- Why an executive’s calendar is often more telling than any business plan.
The Executive Calendar: A Mirror of Your Business
One of the most engaging topics of the evening centered on time management rather than capital.
“Your calendar is the ultimate mirror of your goals. Show me your schedule, and I’ll tell you your actual priorities.”
For many founders, this insight was uncomfortably accurate. Business owners frequently focus on scaling, vision, and growth, yet find their weeks entirely consumed by operational “firefighting”, routine approvals, and administrative drag. In these scenarios, the real, functional goal of the business shifts from development to mere maintenance.
Key Takeaways for Leadership:
- Attention Tracking: Your calendar shows exactly where your primary resource, your attention, is being spent;
- The Over-Centric Trap: If strategic tasks are constantly pushed aside by daily operations, the business remains entirely dependent on the owner;
- Growth Bottlenecks: A lack of dedicated time for development invariably becomes a systemic barrier to growth.
The Action Item: Audit your schedule once a week. Check whether your actual time allocation aligns with the high-level strategic goals the company has set for the year ahead.
Calculated Risk: The AirBaltic Case Study
The discussion turned to a highly debated case: purchasing airBaltic bonds – an asset many investors have actively avoided. However, Nikita’s position relies on probability and structural logic rather than pure optimism.
From his perspective, the airline plays too critical a role in the regional economy for the state to let it fail. Even in a worst-case scenario, the potential upside can justify the high entry risk. This is the practical application of a High Risk-High Return strategy: instead of avoiding risk entirely, look for situations where market anxiety has excessively discounted the asset’s price below its fundamental value.
The Decision-Making Framework:
- Understand the root cause of market fear;
- Separate emotional market reactions from fundamental asset value;
- Evaluate survival and recovery scenarios, not just projected profits;
- Accept the possibility of capital loss if the thesis fails.
While high-risk strategies are not universally applicable, the ability to objectively evaluate unconventional opportunities serves as a distinct competitive advantage during market instability.
Pre-Seed Investing: Betting on the Team, Not the Pitch
The most striking example of the evening involved an early-stage investment in a scooter rental startup back in 2019. At the time, the project existed almost exclusively as a PowerPoint presentation. Despite having no finished product or market validation, Nikita invested – a decision that eventually yielded approximately one million euros in net profit upon exit.
The deciding factor had little to do with market size or financial modeling; it was entirely about the founder.
The entrepreneur had previously gone through a business failure, but even after bankruptcy, he found a way to settle his debts and take care of his original backers in his new venture. This track record demonstrated true reliability and integrity under pressure.
The Early-Stage Reality: At the pre-seed stage, spreadsheets and financial models rarely offer an accurate forecast. The founder’s ability to adapt, handle pressure, and maintain accountability is what mitigates risk. In other words,
- A strong team can pivot a product and uncover a working business model;
- A weak team can mismanage even the most promising concept;
- Crisis behavior is a far more reliable indicator of success than a polished pitch deck.
This principle extends beyond venture capital – it applies equally to hiring executives, selecting business partners, and building core teams.
Real Estate: The Stable Base for Aggressive Growth
Despite his focus on venture capital, real estate remains the bedrock of Nikita’s investment strategy. He views it as a “hard asset” that provides stability, allowing him to take larger, calculated assets in more volatile sectors.
The Underlying Model:
- Purchase a property valued at around €100,000;
- Put down a 15% deposit (~€15,000);
- Ensure rental income covers the mortgage and maintenance;
- Capitalize on property appreciation and equity growth over a long horizon.
The core approach relies on leverage and long-term planning. When executed correctly, the return on equity can significantly outperform traditional investment vehicles.
For business owners, the lesson is clear: establish a stable, predictable foundation before venturing into high-risk domains.
Summary: Key Takeaways to Implement Today
- Treat Your Calendar as a Management Report: If strategic tasks are continually deferred, the business is managing you – not the other way around;
- Evaluate People by Their Actions in a Crisis: Apply this lens to hiring, partnerships, and delegation;
- Look for Opportunities in Market Fear: Unconventional, high-return decisions often emerge during periods of widespread uncertainty.
- Leverage Technology for Routine Tasks: Use AI tools to automate contract reviews, initial analysis, and repetitive tasks to free up strategic focus;
- Secure Your Base Before Expanding: A stable asset or a highly systematized core business provides the safety net required for bolder business experiments.
This article was prepared based on insights from the Baltic Business Club’s CEO Room event. The material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice.
